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Research Paper | Statistics | Rwanda | Volume 7 Issue 11, November 2018 | Popularity: 7 / 10

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Forecasting the Unit Price of Coffee Export in Rwanda Using Arima Model

MWANGABWOBA Janvier, Dr. Joseph K. Mungatu

Abstract: Unit price of coffee export which is the cost of coffee exported per kilogram is one of the indicators to see the economic stability of exported coffee in Rwanda. The value of unit price of coffee export in Rwanda on January 2010 - December 2017 is unstable. unit price which unstable will impede (slow) the economic development in Rwanda, therefore need to be undertaken against the value of the modeling unit price in the future with a method of ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to find an ARIMA model which appropriate to forecasting unit price of coffee export in Rwanda and to know the forecasting unit price in Rwanda on January2018 - December 2019 using Eviews. The Box-Jenkins methods used in this study is a literature method i. e. authors collect, select and analyze readings related to the issues examined and methods documentation i. e. the author collected secondary data from January 2010 - December 2017 in Rwanda. Based on the research obtained, the model appropriate to forecasting unit price of coffee export in Rwanda is a model ARIMA (1, 1, 1). The results of the forecasting unit price of coffee export using Eviews software on January 2018 December 2019 is stable enough. The lowest unit price occurred on February 2018 while the highest occurred on December 2019.

Keywords: time series, unit price, stationarity, forecasting.

Edition: Volume 7 Issue 11, November 2018

Pages: 375 - 380

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