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Research Paper | Mathematics | Ghana | Volume 7 Issue 12, December 2018 | Popularity: 6.3 / 10

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Sensitivity Analysis of the SEIR Epidemic Compartment Model

Affi Osei P

Abstract: In this paper, the SEIR epidemic compartment model was explored. The model showed two equilibria namely the disease - free equilibrium point (DFEP) and the endemic equilibrium point (EEP). The stability of these points was investigated into. It was shown that whenever the basic reproduction number was greater than unity () then the endemic equilibrium point is stable but if otherwise that is then the disease free equilibrium point is stable. Sensitivity analysis was employed to investigate into the effect of the various parameters used in the model on the model output and it was revealed that the infection rate () and the recovery rate () has the most significant effect on the SEIR epidemic model output in relation to the rate at which the latent individual moves to the infectious class. This was evidenced by the value of the basic reproduction number and the proportions of the classes at the endemic equilibrium point when the parameters: infection rate (), rate at which the latent individual moves to the infectious class () and the recovery rate were varied ().

Keywords: Disease free equilibrium point, Endemic equilibrium point, Sensitivity analysis, Basic reproduction number, SEIR

Edition: Volume 7 Issue 12, December 2018

Pages: 352 - 357

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